Revealing his projected price for 2024, Markus Thielen from 10X Research anticipates a surge of approximately 65% in Bitcoin (BTC) from its current value, reaching $70,000 by the year's end. Thielen attributes this potential rally to various factors, including favorable macroeconomic conditions, monetary support, the U.S. election cycle, and growing demand from traditional finance (TradFi) investors engaging in Bitcoin ETFs.
Thielen, who accurately predicted Bitcoin's near-doubling to $45,000 by the close of 2023 a year ago, acknowledges the sluggish price action. He highlights that while Bitcoin has experienced positive rallies in most of its 13-year history, January returns have been more varied, with seven years showing gains and six experiencing declines.
Addressing the subdued performance earlier this year, Thielen acknowledges that his January forecast for spot ETFs not gaining approval again was accurate. Despite this, he expected the price to retract to the mid-high $30,000 range in January. Thielen attributes these market dynamics to the Federal Reserve's decision to postpone the first rate cut, lower-than-expected inflation, and sustained economic growth.
He also underscores the historical correlation between U.S. presidential election cycles and Bitcoin halving years, noting their historically bullish impact on prices. Thielen highlights that in 2012, 2016, and 2020, Bitcoin saw substantial gains during these periods, with an average increase of 192%.
Bitcoin has experienced a 4% year-to-date decline and is trading at $42,700 at the time of writing.