Raoul Pal has an extensive background in financial markets. He has served as head of European hedge fund sales for equities at Goldman Sachs and a portfolio manager at a hedge fund. More recently, he started his own crypto hedge fund, investment research firm and financial knowledge platform. His opinion on crypto is valued around the world, and he is constantly sending out market insights to his 1 million followers on X.
Pal considered many factors to arrive at his prediction that Bitcoin will go as high as $1 million by 2025.
He notes that Bitcoin has seen exponential growth, highlighting the trend on a logarithmic chart. The trend is similar to the 2016-2017 bull market, with large amounts of capital coming in and the halving supporting the increased price.
Pal added that the Bitcoin halving, expected to occur this week, could propel prices. In 2016 and 2020, the halving served as the dividing line between small gains/consolidation and huge amounts of growth. In particular, the price of Bitcoin went from around $800 just before the halving to a high of over $20,000 in 2016; the price went from around $10,000 before the 2020 halving to a high of nearly $70,000. The halving could have a huge impact on the price if the Bitcoin market cycle continues to drive the market.
Another point that Pal emphasized was the collapse of several large banks last year. The banks, such as Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and First Republic Bank, failed because of mismanagement. Pal said the collapsed banks strengthen the case for institutional adoption of Bitcoin because the crypto is decentralized and secured by blockchain technology.
Lastly, Pal sees the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as a huge driver for growth going forward. The ETFs allowed many new investors to buy Bitcoin via the funds, which have been the most successful in ETF history. The new buyers have helped propel the price of Bitcoin higher, reaching all-time highs (ATHs) in March.
"There is an enormous wall of money coming into (Bitcoin)," Pal said in October 2020. "It's an enormous wall of money, just the pipes aren't there to allow people to do it yet, and that's coming, but it's on everyone's radar screen, and there are a lot of smart people working on it."
The Bitcoin ETFs have since provided the means for some of these institutions to invest in BTC.
Pal believes that Bitcoin could go as high as $1 million by 2025. As of now, $1,000 is worth around 0.0155 BTC. If BTC were to go to $1 million, 0.0155 Bitcoin would be worth $15,500. This would mark a return of 1,450%.