At a recent technology, media, and communications conference managed by JPMorgan Chase, Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) COO Emilie Choi made a remark that should resonate deeply with seasoned investors and newcomers alike.
When asked about the current stage of the crypto cycle, she dodged the question with a brilliant insight: "So I am smart enough not to prognosticate about where we are in the cycle because I'm sure I'll always be wrong."
This was just a throwaway line at the start of a fireside chat, and the conversation soon moved on to a detailed analysis of the current crypto market. But it stuck with me long after clicking away from the broader presentation. Choi's self-deprecating nugget of wisdom underscores a critical lesson in every form of investing: Trying to time the market is the wrong kind of fool's errand.
The futility of market timing
Investors often get caught up in the allure of timing the market -- buying at the lowest point and selling at the peak. That's a great idea when combined with a long-term mindset, but a dangerous one if you're chasing the thrills of day trading and get-rich-quick ploys.
Even the most experienced professionals admit that accurately predicting market cycles is nearly impossible. The crypto market, known for its volatility, only amplifies this challenge. While it might be tempting to jump in and out based on short-term trends, doing so often leads to missed opportunities and substantial losses.
Here at The Motley Fool, you'll often see a different approach: Time in the market. This strategy involves buying and holding investments for the long term, allowing them to grow and compound over time. Master investors such as John Bogle and Warren Buffett always saw compound returns as the true magic behind their wealth-building investment results. Every little bit of increased value sets you up for even greater wins in the future, and it's an exponential effect.
Historical data supports this philosophy, showing that long-term investments typically outperform those that are frequently traded. Emilie Choi is following a wise doctrine here, in the well-worn footsteps of world-class role models.
Why time in the market works
By staying invested, your returns can compound, meaning you earn returns on your returns. Over time, this effect can significantly boost your portfolio's value. Generally speaking, economic markets tend to gain value in the long run, with the occasional dip, plunge, and crash along the way. In trying to skip these inevitable pullbacks, you're equally likely to miss the next big uptick instead.
Constantly monitoring the market and making rapid decisions can be stressful. A long-term strategy allows you to focus on other important aspects of your life without the anxiety of daily market fluctuations. Opportunistic investors should be ready to buy more stock, funds, real estate, or cryptocurrencies on the dips. More even-tempered wealth-builders could use a dollar-cost averaging strategy instead, constantly adding funds to their favorite investments over time regardless of short-term price moves. This approach can even be automated.
Never forget that investing can be an emotional exercise. Decisions made in the heat of market booms or an economic panic often lead to buying high and selling low -- the exact opposite of a successful strategy. Calmly staying invested helps you avoid these common pitfalls.
Applying the "time in the market" idea to crypto
The crypto market's inherent volatility might make long-term investing seem daunting. However, the principles of time in the market apply here as well.
It's essential to do your research and choose cryptocurrencies with solid fundamentals, but a cool and calm long-term approach can soften the risks associated with short-term volatility. As long as you're investing in robust names with a promising long-term future, the unpredictable market swings along the way won't matter.
Remember, the market will have its ups and downs, but a disciplined, patient approach can help you ride out the storms and enjoy the sunny days that follow. Coinbase's president and COO gave me a much-needed reminder of this core philosophy today. As a longtime Coinbase investor, it's downright inspiring to see her approach her C-suite job in a volatile sector with this modest mindset